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DTN Midday Livestock Comments          11/26 12:05

   Further Pressure Develops in Cattle Trade                       

   Pressure has quickly developed in live cattle and feeder cattle futures at 
midday. Early support in the complex quickly eroded as traders focus on slowing 
trade volume and development of steady cash trade in several areas. Lean hog 
futures moved higher at midday.    

By Rick Kment
DTN Analyst



GENERAL COMMENTS: 

   A direction shift has been seen through the livestock market at midday with 
moderate buyer support trickling back into the lean hog futures market. This 
has helped to draw additional support back into the complex. Cattle trade has 
turned weaker with strong losses seen in both the live cattle and feeder cattle 
complex. Corn prices are higher in light trade. December corn futures are 3 
cents per bushel higher. Stock markets are mixed in light trade. The Dow Jones 
is 11 points lower while Nasdaq is up 18 points.

   LIVE CATTLE:

   It appears that cash cattle trade will likely get done before the 
Thanksgiving break. This has quickly limited any early buyer support in the 
complex, although cash markets are expected to remain near steady with last 
week levels. Strong pressure is seen in February live cattle futures with 
losses of $1.17 per cwt. The additional weakness in feeder cattle futures is 
adding to the overall market concerns. Cash cattle trade is starting to develop 
but having a hard time getting significant business done at this point. Trade 
in the South may be nearing completion with prices at $173 per cwt, which is 
fully steady with last week. 

   Bids of $267 are seen in the north, but so far no activity has been 
confirmed as far as sales. It is likely that feeders will move cattle with 
prices steady to firm from last week. Asking prices on cattle still left to be 
sold are around $175 in the South and $272 to $274 in the North. Beef cut-outs 
at midday are higher, $0.18 higher (select) and up $0.59 per cwt (choice) with 
light movement of 143 total loads reported (49 loads of choice cuts, 21 loads 
of select cuts, 29 loads of trimmings, 44 loads of ground beef).

   FEEDER CATTLE:

   Early support in the feeder cattle futures was unable to hold through 
morning trade as the focus once again turned to uncertainty about growth in 
demand and higher than expected short-term supplies over the near future. 
Although limited trade is seen through the entire complex, pressure in deferred 
contracts has quickly eroded any nearby support.   

   LEAN HOGS:

   Futures prices have strengthened through the morning as light to moderate 
buyer support is slowly trickling into nearby contracts. December contracts are 
holding just 10 cent per cwt gains, while firmer support is seen in spring and 
summer contracts based on the potential of demand growth. There remains light 
trade through the complex which could keep prices extremely limited. Cash 
prices are lower on the National Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted 
average price fell $1.43 per cwt to $84.54 per cwt with the range from $77.00 
to $86.75 per cwt on 3,220 head reported sold. Cash prices are lower on the 
Iowa Minnesota Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price fell 
$1.05 per cwt to $86.23 per cwt with the range from $80.00 to $86.75 per cwt on 
500 head reported sold. The National Pork Plant Report is reported 223 loads 
selling as prices falling $0.52 per cwt. Lean hog index for 11/21 is at $88.78 
down $0.08, with a projected two-day index of $88.74 down 0.04.

   Rick Kment can be reached at rick.kment@dtn.com 


(SK)

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