DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/17 11:42
Light Trade in Grains at Midday
Grain trade is mostly lower at midday in slow action.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow up 10. The interest
rate products are lower. The dollar index is 2 higher. Energies are mixed with
crude $0.50. Livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious metals are mixed with
gold down $0.50.
Corn trade is 3 cents lower in quiet action at midday; the range has been a
nickel. Outside markets are slightly negative with the dollar firming ahead of
Federal Reserve comments today. The weekly ethanol production report showed a
small production increase of 4,000 barrels and stocks were 800,000 barrels
higher. This has ethanol futures down 3 to 7 cents a gallon at midday, which is
shrinking margins. Corn basis has started to weaken a bit more in front of the
impending record harvest with no major weather issues on the horizon. On the
December chart support is at the $3.35 3/4 lower with resistance at the 10-day
moving average at $3.44.
Soybean trade is 1 to 3 cents lower in quiet trade, with November trade
squarely in the middle of the recent range. Meal is flat to $1 lower with oil
20 to 30 points higher. Soybean basis has continued to fade with harvest about
to pick up steam. Spread trade has been fairly soft on soybeans, which could
help trigger another round of selling. The USDA announced 620,000 metric tons
of sales to China. Notable November soybean chart support is at the new
contract low printed last Thursday (USDA report day) at $9.69 with resistance
at $9.99, where we find the 10-day moving average.
Wheat trade is mixed at midday with trade seeing choppy action in light
trade. The dollar has backed away from the recent highs a bit, but is holding
at levels that keep the U.S. fairly uncompetitive in the export market, as
shown by Egypt buying three cargos from France yesterday. The Southern Plains
continue to battle ongoing drought, although improved this past month, it can
still hinder early planting and development of wheat. The potential for heavy
rain the next few days across the Southern Plains will need to be watched.
Support on the December Kansas City contract is $5.79, the low from this
morning, with first resistance at $6.06, where we find the 10-day moving
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered Trading Adviser.
David Fiala can be reached at email@example.com
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala
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