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- DTN Headline News
USDA Reports Summary
Tuesday, September 30, 2014 5:24PM CDT

By Katie Micik
DTN Markets Editor

WASHINGTON (DTN) -- USDA pegged soybean stocks as of Sept. 1 at 92 million bushels, below the range of pre-report expectations and average expectations for 130 mb leftover from last year's production.

USDA revised 2013 soybean production upwards by 69.2 mb to 3.36 billion bushels in its quarterly Grain Stocks report. USDA increased harvested area by 384,000 acres and increased the average yield to 44 bushels per acre, up 0.7 bushels from the previous estimate.

Corn ending stocks, at 1.236 billion bushels, fell within the range of pre-report expectations. USDA said 462 million bushels were stored on-farm, 68% more than a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 774 mb, were up 42%. Indicated disappearance for the June to August timeframe was 2.62 bb, compared to 1.95 bb last year.

On soybeans, USDA said 21.3 mb were stored on-farm, down 46% from a year ago, and 70.6 mb were stored off-farm, down 30%. Disappearance from June to August totaled 313 million bushels, up 6% from the same period last year.

Wheat ending stocks, at 1.91 bb, came in within the range of pre-report expectations. It's 2% higher than a year ago, with on-farm stocks estimated at 722 mb and off-farm stocks estimated at 1.19 bb. Disappearance was estimated at 711 mb for June to August, down 28% from the same period a year earlier.

USDA also released its Small Grains Summary, estimating all-wheat production at 2.04 billion bushels, down 5% from 2013. Farmers harvested 46.5 million acres, up 3% from the previous year. The national average yield was estimated at 43.8 bpa, down 3.3 bushels from 2013.

Farmers harvested 739 mb of hard red winter wheat, 455 mb of soft red winter wheat, 601 mb of spring wheat and 57 mb of durum wheat, USDA said. Most of the production estimates were within the range of pre-report expectations except for spring wheat, which came in above the highest trade guess.

ANALYSIS

In its quarterly Grain Stocks report, USDA said that Sept. 1 stocks of U.S. corn totaled 1.236 billion bushels, more than expected, said DTN Analyst Todd Hultman. U.S. soybean stocks totaled 92 million bushels, less than expected and the lowest in modern history. U.S. wheat stocks totaled 1.914 billion bushels, more than expected. "Tuesday's grain stocks report from USDA is bearish for corn and wheat, slightly bullish for soybeans," Hultman said.

In USDA's Small Grains Summary, all wheat production for the U.S. totaled 2.036 billion bushels in 2014, down 5% from 2013, but a little more than expected, Hultman said. Winter wheat production totaled 1.378 billion bushels, less than expected. Hard red winter wheat totaled 738 million bushels and soft red winter wheat totaled 455 million bushels. Other spring wheat totaled 601 million bushels, 561 million bushels of which was hard red spring wheat. "Tuesday's production estimates from USDA were slightly bearish for wheat prices, in general," Hultman said.

Editor's note: Join DTN Senior Analyst Darin Newsom at 12 p.m. CDT on Tuesday for a discussion on the latest USDA reports and what the numbers might mean for the markets. Sign up now at: www.dtnpf.com/promo/webinars.

QUARTERLY STOCKS (billion bushels)
(Report date 9/30/14) 9/1/14 Avg High Low 6/1/14 9/1/13
Corn 1.236 1.181 1.255 1.020 3.854 0.821
Soybeans 0.092 0.130 0.145 0.100 0.405 0.141
Wheat 1.914 1.894 2.020 1.707 0.590 1.870
Grain Sorghum 0.034 0.028 0.031 0.025 0.092 0.015
SMALL GRAINS SUMMARY (billion bushels) Actual
2014-2015 Production 9/30/14 Avg High Low Aug-14 13-14
All Wheat 2.035 2.033 2.120 1.965 2.030 2.134
Winter 1.378 1.401 1.534 1.370 1.397 1.543
HRW 0.738 0.728 0.758 0.700 0.729 0.747
SRW 0.455 0.470 0.565 0.437 0.466 0.568
White 0.184 0.203 0.225 0.193 0.202 0.227
Spring 0.601 0.572 0.594 0.535 0.572 0.534
Durum 0.057 0.061 0.063 0.056 0.061 0.058

(AG/CZ)


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